Academic Research – Portfolio returns

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Job Description

We would like a thorough and intelligent individual to answer the following questions for us. We are looking for a short report that provides specific best answers for the following questions with references to the background information used. I understand that it will not be possible to find a perfect answer. We expect the references to included highly sited academic papers (candidates should have their own access to academic journals) and other sources of high quality information.

Questions relating to public stock market portfolios:
• What is the probability of a profession portfolio manager achieving portfolio returns exceeding the S&P 500 return for more than 10 years?
• What is the probability of a profession portfolio manager achieving portfolio returns exceeding 20% return for more than 10 years?
• What is the probability of a profession portfolio manager achieving portfolio returns exceeding 20% return for more than 25 years? This could literally include a list of all known managers used to calculate the probability.

Where you identify high quality research that provides an answer to a similar question then I would be happy for you to suggest a slightly difference question.

I would like some measure of confidence for these probabilities and explanation for how the probabilities were calculated eg. how many managers, what time periods. Assume I am interested in any 10 year or 25 year period over the last 100 years or so.